William A. Davis

Nano Air Vehicles: a Technology Forecast William A. Davis

This paper documents the result of a future technology forecast study to determine when operationally useful nano aerial vehicles or NAVs will be achieved. This was accomplished as part of the Blue Horizons Research Team tasked by the Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force to explore emerging technologies and make recommendations for long range investment. This study utilized a future forecasting method called the Delphi Method which was developed by the RAND Corporation in the 1960s to make the forecast. The results indicate NAVs capable of operating in swarms will be available within 10 years to perform operational missions. This paper recommends the Air Force begin work now to fully develop operational concepts and requirements for NAVs to guide future development work and enter the Joint Capabilities and Integration Development System to fully define capability requirements for swarming NAVs across the services to gain efficiencies in development and acquisition of these systems and to avoid duplicative requirements and programs.